Snowpack levels low across the state

It seems that every summer Montanans start voicing their opinions about what the winter season will bring. The last few years, smoke-filled skies left many hoping for plentiful snowfall. Early weather models indicated that was just what the current winter season had in store.

According to Lucas Zukiewicz, NRCS water supply specialist, weather patterns changed in November resulting in depletion of October’s below average temperatures and above average snowfall. “Unfortunately, as we have seen in previous La Nina years in Montana, a forecasted La Nina winter isn’t a guarantee of cold and wet conditions during every month of the snow season, it’s only an increased probability of that occurring over a given period of time,” Zukiewicz reported.

Snowpack Telemetry (SNOTEL) sites, instruments that gather data for snowfall measurements and predicted runoff, throughout Montana recorded little snowfall between November 20 and December 12, aiding in a decline of snowpack levels. The final weeks of 2020 brought more snow activity that helped boost these levels. Overall, data collected statewide on January 1 suggests 35% to 45% of seasonal peak snowpack average has accumulated in the Treasure State.

Locally, Kootenai National Forest Service (KNF) snow and water staff stated there is 80% to 85% snowpack for this time of year at high elevations. The Bear Mountain SNOTEL station, located on the Idaho and Montana border at 5,300 feet in elevation west of Troy, identified 83 inches of snow with 25 inches of water content. This site indicated a 23-inch snow accumulation between January 1 through January 8. The Rock Creek SNOTEL, elevation 5,800 feet, recorded a 67-inch snow level with 16 inches of water.

Although lower elevations are experiencing well below average snowpack, KNF staff explained that historically most of the snowfall occurs in the months of February and March. Zukiewicz agreed, stating that with plenty of winter season left, there is “plenty of time for snow totals to recover before runoff begins this spring and summer.”

As we have witnessed already this year, weather patterns can change, improving chances for cooler temperatures and increased precipitation. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center anticipates the remaining weeks in January to bring warmer than normal temperatures and increased precipitation to most of Montana, reported Zukiewicz. “At this point we’ll take what precipitation we can get, especially in southwestern Montana,” an area that missed out on the October snowfall leaving it, for now, far below average.